Funding or Footprint First? How Overseas Startups Succeed in the US

For founders based outside the United States, deciding whether to raise capital from American venture capitalists before or after entering the US market is a pivotal and also a costly strategic decision. The optimal approach depends on your industry, market readiness, and operational objectives. Drawing on recent data that we analysed, here’s a comprehensive look at the factors that should guide your choice.

Key Data on Overseas Startups Raising in the US

A study of 153 overseas startups that raised capital in the US reveals several notable trends. On average, these companies secure their first US investment 4.3 years after founding. Nearly 45% obtain US funding within two to five years, while only about 13% do so in their first year. Interestingly, startups founded after 2015 reach US investors more quickly, with those established in 2020 averaging just 1.6 years to their first US investment (due to 2021 bull run).

Patterns: US Hiring vs. Fundraising

The sequence of US hiring and fundraising varies by industry and can influence the scale of capital raised. About 30% of companies hire US employees before securing US funding, a pattern most common in healthcare, biotech, and payments sectors, typically resulting in lower initial capital raised. Roughly 35% raise US funding before making local hires, a trend prevalent in fintech, software, and IT, and these companies tend to secure larger funding rounds. A smaller group, around 14%, hires and raises in the same year, while a niche 3% raise US capital without hiring locally, often in remote-first or specialized sectors. The data suggests that startups raising before hiring in the US are more likely to secure larger investment rounds.

Industry and Geography: What Shapes the Sequence

Industry and geographic origin play a significant role in shaping US entry strategies. Life sciences and regulated sectors, such as healthcare and biotech, often prioritize hiring US talent before fundraising. This approach is driven by the need for local expertise, regulatory navigation, and credibility with investors and customers. In contrast, digital and software startups-especially in fintech and enterprise IT-frequently raise US capital first, leveraging product traction and global relevance to attract investors before building a local team. Startups from Southeast Asia and Australasia are more likely to establish a US presence before fundraising, signaling commitment and reducing perceived execution risk for American investors.

Strategic Implications for Founders

Fundraising Before US Expansion

This approach is best suited for SaaS, fintech, and enterprise software platforms with strong product-market fit and global appeal. Securing US funding before establishing local operations preserves capital for growth, demonstrates capital efficiency, and allows startups to test US market demand before making significant investments. Typically, these companies secure US investment and then set up US operations within two to three years.

Hiring Before Fundraising

For regulated or capital-intensive sectors like healthcare, biotech, or financial services, hiring US talent or leadership before fundraising is often essential. Building a local team enhances credibility, accelerates regulatory approvals, and signals long-term commitment to the market. The typical path involves recruiting key US personnel, setting up local operations, and then approaching US investors.

Simultaneous Approach

Some startups, particularly those with ample resources or operating in highly competitive sectors, pursue parallel strategies-raising funds and hiring in the US simultaneously. While this maximizes speed and market learning, it requires greater capital and operational bandwidth.

Best Practices for US Market Entry

Successful US market entry requires more than just capital or a local presence. Deep market research is essential; founders should avoid assuming that US buyers behave like those in their home markets and must localize their value proposition accordingly. Strategic partnerships with established US players can accelerate credibility and market access, sometimes reducing the need for immediate local hires. Phased rollouts-starting in select regions-allow startups to test and adapt before scaling nationally. For regulated industries, early legal and compliance planning is crucial to avoid costly delays. While many US investors still prefer local teams, especially at early stages, there is a growing acceptance of remote-first models and global teams.

Practical Guidance by Sector

For enterprise software and fintech startups, focus on demonstrating product traction and global relevance. It is often possible to raise from US investors before hiring locally, but you should have a clear plan for US expansion. In healthcare and biotech, prioritize hiring or partnering in the US before fundraising, as local presence is often a prerequisite for regulatory and investor confidence. Regardless of your sector, align your US hiring and fundraising strategies with your operational capacity and market readiness. Investors seek both commitment and capital efficiency.

“There is no universal rule, but your US hiring strategy should align with your market readiness, funding strategy, and operational capacity. Investors want to see commitment, but also capital efficiency and product clarity.”

Bottom Line

There is no one-size-fits-all answer to whether overseas startups should raise capital before or after entering the US market. The optimal sequence depends on your industry, business model, and market strategy. For most SaaS and digital startups, raising capital before building a US team is often preferable-but this usually requires exceptional traction that signals the potential for a 20x or greater return. In regulated or high-touch sectors, establishing a US presence first is crucial to unlocking investor interest and market access. Many successful startups blend both approaches, adapting as they learn from the market and investor feedback. Ultimately, careful planning, deep market understanding, and a tailored strategy are essential for a successful US entry and fundraising journey.


By Jeffrey Paine and Annette Wei



The Future of AI Innovation: A Data-Driven Analysis of Research Trends and Startup Opportunities 2025-2027

AI is entering a transformative phase, with research and market data revealing both mainstream growth and emerging frontiers. Based on an extensive analysis of over 20,000 research papers from NEURIPS and detailed startup activity, this post highlights the key trends and commercial gaps that will define AI innovation through 2027.

Mainstream AI Evolution: 2025 Forecast

Enterprise AI Infrastructure & Optimization

  • Research Activity: 2,405 papers

  • Market Context: The AI infrastructure market is projected to reach between $60 billion and $82 billion in 2025, with forecasts of continued double-digit growth as organizations prioritize AI integration for operational efficiency and competitive advantage.

  • Key Opportunities:

    • Automation for enterprise-scale AI deployment

    • Resource and cost optimization for large language models (LLMs)

    • Workflow management and orchestration tools

Despite widespread belief in AI’s benefits, only a small fraction of organizations have fully implemented enterprise AI, signaling significant room for expansion and innovation.

AI Safety and Governance

  • Research Volume: 1,985 papers

  • Market Dynamics: Regulatory scrutiny is intensifying globally, with governments introducing frameworks for transparency, accountability, and risk management in AI systems.

  • Growth Areas:

    • Compliance and audit platforms

    • Bias detection and mitigation systems

    • Privacy-preserving AI solutions

    • Safety monitoring and risk assessment tools

The shift toward responsible AI is driving demand for solutions that ensure compliance and address ethical concerns, especially as regulations become more complex.

Generative AI 2.0

  • Research Focus: 1,594 papers

  • Market Activity: The generative AI market is expected to exceed $22 billion globally by 2025, with North America leading in revenue share.

  • Emerging Opportunities:

    • Industry-specific generative AI solutions

    • Controlled and reliable generation systems

    • Multi-modal and creative AI platforms

Generative AI is rapidly moving from general-purpose applications to specialized, vertical-focused tools that address enterprise needs and regulatory requirements.

Emerging Niche Subsectors

Fastest Growing Research Areas

Subsector  Growth Rate     Research Volume     Commercial Gap    Example Applications
Neuro-symbolic AI  600%     27 papers      High     Explainable AI, reasoning
Few-shot Learning  191%     339 papers      High     Efficient learning, enterprise
Privacy-Preserving AI  175%     72 papers      High     Regulated industries

These areas are seeing rapid research growth but remain under-commercialized, representing high-potential opportunities for new ventures.

Emerging Hybrid Fields

  • Self-supervised + Unsupervised Learning: 31 recent papers, no commercial implementations, significant market gap

  • Federated + Privacy-Preserving Systems: 22 papers, rising regulatory demand, strong commercial potential

  • Meta-learning + Few-shot Systems: 18 papers, promising for enterprise automation

Hybrid approaches are gaining traction in research but have yet to see widespread commercial adoption, highlighting a fertile ground for startups.

Market Gap Analysis

Several foundational AI fields show a pronounced gap between research activity and commercial presence:

Area  Research Papers      Companies      Gap Score
Unsupervised Learning  269       0       269.0
Self-supervised Learning  261       0       261.0
Few-shot Learning  203       0       203.0

This gap suggests that while academic interest is high, practical solutions are lagging, creating strong opportunities for innovation and market entry.

Future Predictions: 2025-2027

Highest Potential Areas

  • Enterprise AI Infrastructure: Demand for scalable, cost-effective, and reliable deployment solutions will continue to surge as organizations increase AI adoption and spending.

  • AI Safety & Governance: Regulatory pressures and compliance needs will drive adoption of safety, audit, and risk management platforms.

  • Specialized Industry Solutions: Custom AI applications tailored to specific sectors (healthcare, finance, manufacturing) will become a major growth driver.

Strong Potential Areas

  • Healthcare AI: Clinical decision support, medical imaging, drug discovery, and workflow optimization

  • Multimodal Systems: Integration of text, image, and sensor data for advanced applications

  • Edge AI Solutions: On-device optimization, edge-cloud hybrid systems, and IoT integration

Emerging Areas

  • Specialized LLMs: Domain-specific language models for enterprise and industry

  • Autonomous Systems: Industrial automation, robotics, and decision systems

  • Generative AI 2.0: Controlled, reliable, and industry-focused generative AI

Research-to-Market Timeline

There is typically a 1-2 year lag between peaks in research activity and commercial implementation. Current research trends-especially in neuro-symbolic AI and privacy-preserving systems-are poised to become viable startup opportunities within the 2025-2027 window.

Conclusion

The AI landscape is shifting from general-purpose platforms to highly specialized, industry-focused solutions. The greatest opportunities lie where research is robust but market saturation remains low, particularly in enterprise infrastructure, AI safety, and sector-specific applications. Emerging hybrid fields and niche subsectors with large research-to-market gaps are especially promising for innovators and startups. As AI adoption accelerates and investment strategies mature, the next wave of AI innovation will be led by those who can bridge the gap between cutting-edge research and practical, scalable solutions.

Methodology Note:
This analysis is based on a dataset of 20,629 research papers (2020-2024) from NEURIPS, data on 952 AI companies, and growth analysis across 26 technical domains. Funding data from a limited set of startups was excluded in favor of broader market and industry statistics.


The DNA of Modern Tech Founders: A Data-Driven Analysis of 137 Successful Entrepreneurs

The tech entrepreneurship landscape is evolving—and our deep dive into 137 founders’ LinkedIn profiles reveals a new archetype of today’s innovators. From elite alma maters to unexpected career paths, here are eight data-driven insights reshaping what it takes to launch and scale groundbreaking ventures.

1. Stanford leads: 37 founders (27%) earned degrees there—far outpacing any other institution. Top contenders: MIT follows with 13 alumni (9.5%), while Berkeley and Harvard tie at 8 each.
This “Stanford effect” underscores the power of its ecosystem in spawning high-impact founders.

2. The Technical Foundation
CS prevalence: 63 founders (46%) majored in Computer Science.
Tech vs. business: Technical degrees outnumber MBAs by 3-to-1, and over 90% hold at least one STEM qualification.
Modern entrepreneurship demands deep technical skills—business degrees alone won’t cut it.

3. The Path to Founding
7.8 years to first venture (median 6 years).
Founder experience: 90.5% have launched at least one company.
Role spotlight: Co-founder is the most common title (33 profiles).
Contrary to the “launch straight out of college” myth, successful founders invest significant time gaining expertise.

4. Geographic Concentration
U.S. dominance: 127 founders (93%) are stateside.
Hub power: San Francisco Bay Area claims 51 founders (37%), with New York a distant second (10).
Despite remote work’s rise, proximity to top tech clusters remains critical.

5. Network Size Paradox
Median followers: 7,511 on LinkedIn.
Wild range: From 313 to 2.7 million followers, yet 75% fall below 27,000.
Building a unicorn doesn’t require a massive social media presence—just meaningful connections.

6. Career Transition Patterns
Non-traditional paths: 71 founders rose outside big tech or academia.
Few big-tech veterans: Only 10 founders came directly from major tech firms.
Academic bridge: Many transition from research roles rather than corporate ones.
Diverse career journeys fuel fresh perspectives—and break the mold of “big tech first.”

7. Industry Focus
Healthcare & biotech: Leading companies include Hippocratic AI and Xaira Therapeutics.
AI/ML infrastructure: Anysphere, Perplexity, and CoreWeave stand out.
Enterprise solutions: Wiz and other B2B platforms dominate.
Deep tech—especially in health and infrastructure—drives the next wave of innovation.

8. Language Skills
Multilingual edge: English (33 mentions), Spanish (14), French (10), Hindi and German (6 each).
Global communication skills hint at cross-border ambitions and diverse market reach.

The Modern Founder Archetype: 
Deeply technical, patient builders who average 6–8 years of experience, cluster in major hubs, and tackle high-stakes domains—from biotech to enterprise AI.

Looking Ahead: Technical depth trumps pure business training, physical hubs still matter, and social media clout is optional. Expect the next big breakthroughs from seasoned experts with global mindsets, not overnight influencers.


Stay tuned for more data-driven insights on the people shaping the future of technology.

Predicting Success in AI Startups: A Data-Driven Investment Analysis Part 3 - 2024 Vintage

Our machine learning approach to identify high-potential AI startups has yielded exceptional results yet again but much fine-tuning, significantly outperforming industry benchmarks and validating our investment methodology.

Project Framework

We applied our established machine learning methodology to identify promising AI ventures, maintaining consistency with our previous analysis. Our approach incorporated:

- Six predictive variables: Industries, Company Description, Founder Biography, Founder Gender, Location, and Educational Background
- A dual-model ensemble combining Random Forest and XGBoost algorithms
- Advanced text vectorization for unstructured data

Portfolio Performance

Our model-selected portfolio of 15 companies founded in 2024-2025 demonstrates remarkable performance:

- 40% Success Rate: 6 companies have already achieved significant success
- 86.67% Projected Success Rate: Including companies currently "on track"
- 5.43x Outperformance: Compared to the industry baseline of 7.37% (note: real world constrains have not been factored)

Geographic Distribution and Success Patterns

Our portfolio shows strategic geographic diversity while maintaining concentration in key tech hubs:

- San Francisco Bay Area: 7 companies (4 successful, 57% success rate)
- New York: 2 companies
- Other locations: 6 companies across Texas, Delaware, and Washington
- California companies show a 50% success rate vs 20% for non-California companies


Key Successes (sample selection):

- Safe Superintelligence (Palo Alto): AI safety and systems
- World Labs (San Francisco): 3D perception and interaction
- Sapien (San Francisco): AI for finance

Significance and Implications

This experiment provides several significant insights:

Model Validation
- Demonstrates the effectiveness of ML-driven startup selection
- Shows strong predictive power for early-stage success indicators
- Validates the use of historical patterns for future success prediction especially in a vertical context (i.e AI)

Portfolio Strategy Validation
- Confirms the value of geographic diversity while maintaining focus on tech hubs
- Shows the importance of confidence thresholds in investment decisions
- Demonstrates successful risk management (only 1 failure in 15 investments)

Industry Implications
- Suggests potential for systematic outperformance using ML-driven selection
- Indicates high success potential in specific AI subsectors (cybersecurity, financial services)
- Demonstrates the value of data-driven decision making in venture capital

Looking Forward

With a projected success rate of 86.67% and current performance 5.43x above industry baseline, our results strongly validate the ML-driven approach to startup selection. The model's ability to identify promising companies across different locations and AI applications suggests scalability and broader applicability.

The strong correlation between model confidence scores and actual outcomes provides a compelling case for incorporating machine learning into venture capital decision-making processes. As we continue to monitor the portfolio, the early results suggest that AI-powered startup selection could significantly improve venture capital returns while reducing investment risks.

**Disclaimer**: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future outcomes.